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Falcons: During Atlanta’s current six-game winning streak, its defense has made significant strides from the one that surrendered 27.9 points per game through the first 12 games of the regular season. Over this six-game stretch, the defense has allowed just 19.3 points per game. Playing the likes of the Rams and 49ers offered an opportunity to pad numbers, but it’s hard to argue with the Falcons holding their own in playoff matchups against Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson. In the playoffs, the Falcons have forced four turnovers, building off the momentum from the end of the regular season. Quinn preaches “the ball” all the time, which is why the Falcons finished the regular season with a plus-11 turnover ratio, tied for fourth in the NFL.
Since the start of the 2001 season, the Patriots lead the league in QB sneaks, running 0.52 every game, which translates to one roughly every other week.1 For comparison, Kansas City, which is last in the league, runs about two QB sneaks per season. Most teams attempt about three or four sneaks in a season, with Jacksonville (0.5 per game or roughly eight per season) and Baltimore (roughly seven per season) the only other teams that approach New Englandâ€™s frequency. During that period, the Patriots, led by Belichick and quarterback Tom Brady, have won 14 of 16 AFC East titles and have been to the Super Bowl seven times, including Sundayâ€™s game against the Atlanta Falcons.
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The QB sneak is a remarkably efficient play, and an excellent way to extend a drive. Leaguewide, the conversion rate2 from 2001 to 2015 on 3rd-and-1 or 4th-and-1 plays that are not QB sneaks is 65 percent â€” on sneaks, that success rate jumps to 84 percent.3 And thereâ€™s a similar story when teams have 2 yards to gain, with sneaks 20 percentage points more successful (75 percent versus 55 percent) relative to other runs or passes.